Memorandum

City of Lawrence

 

TO:

David L. Corliss, City Manager

 

FROM:

Mike Lawless, Assistant Director, Utilities

Scott McCullough, Director, Planning and Development Services

 

CC:

Cynthia Wagner, Assistant City Manager

Diane Stoddard, Assistant City Manager

Dave Wagner, Utilities Director

 

Date:

For April 27, 2010 City Commission Meeting

 

RE:

Utilities Master Planning Growth Projections

 

 

On November 11, 2009 notice to proceed was issued for an engineering services contract for the Wastewater Master Plan (Plan). The Plan will provide an evaluation of the wastewater collection and treatment systems for improvements to serve potential development planned through the year 2030. The Plan will use existing population for 2010 and population projections for 2020 and 2030 as the input data for the design years. The Plan will provide flow/development triggers for the construction of system improvements.

 

Plan Boundary

 

To develop the flow projections for the design years, a defined boundary with the population estimates and distribution of the population within the boundary are needed. Utilities and Planning staff have met several times to discuss the planning boundaries of the project as well as the logistics of preparing the underlying data needed for the population and growth projections for the design years. Several adopted sector plans, including the Southeast Area Plan, the K-10 & Farmer’s Turnpike Plan, the West of K-10 Plan, and the Northeast Sector Plan that is currently underway, have guided development of an appropriate boundary for the Plan. In addition to the planning boundaries, the drainage basins are physical boundaries that also effect development and the results of the Plan.

 

A map of the current Urban Growth Area, basin boundaries, and sector plans is provided to show how these boundaries overlay each other. As a result of these overlays and staff discussions, a logical and justifiable boundary is proposed for the Wastewater Master Plan as shown on the map. This planning boundary, the population projections, and distribution of the population will allow distribution of the basin flows needed for the project. While this boundary is logical based on the discussion above there is always the possibility that a development request could be made outside of the planning area.


 

Population Projections

 

Horizon 2020 sets out three population projections using July 1st 2000 Census data of 80,508 for the city of Lawrence: Low, Medium, and High.

 

Population Projections from Horizon 2020

 

 

 

Horizon 2020 Projections

2010

2020

2030

 

 

 

 

Low

88,961

100,076

111,191

Medium

95,178

110,406

125,635

High

99,013

122,394

151,296

 

Population projection methods primarily rely on trend data and the most accurate projections can only be completed every decade after the Census Bureau releases the Decennial Census Data. Staff will release new population projections after the 2010 Census numbers are calculated and disclosed for public use.

 

Planning Staff has analyzed the effects that short and long-term growth trends would have on the population projections. Given recent population trends, staff is of the opinion that Lawrence is between the Low and Medium population projections from Horizon 2020 and the department currently projects Lawrence to reach between 112,000 and 126,000 people in 2030.  A 2030 population of approximately 125,000 for Lawrence is used to build the growth scenarios for the Wastewater Master Plan.

 

Population Distribution - Future Development Trends and Growth Areas

 

To determine appropriate distribution of the 2030 population, staff used existing data and made assumptions about the amount of residential dwelling unit inventory the city of Lawrence currently has and where the likely growth will occur based on historic patterns and identified opportunities and constraints. The following exercise will assist the consultants as they embark on the Plan update.

 

Staff used census population data, building permit trend data and information from meetings with owners and consultants on specific properties over the last few years to make assumptions about the number of dwelling units that are approved for construction or could be available with the appropriate land use approvals granted and infrastructure extended.  Staff concludes that there are approximately 5,100 approved or potentially approved residential units available in the city limits currently.  Please see map for locations of approved and not yet, but potentially, approved residential units.

 

A range of population growth, based on Horizon 2020 projections, was used to draw conclusions as to the number of years of current or potential residential inventory currently within the city.  The data does not differentiate between single-family, duplex, and multi-family structures and so any one of these types of residential units may be more or less under-represented in the exercise.

 

 

Build Out Table

Population / Year

Assumed Persons / Unit

Units Occupied / Year

Years to Build Out Approved and Potentially Approved Inventory of 5,100 units (City Only)

LOW - 1,000 / year

2.3 persons / unit

435

11.7 years

MED. - 1,500 / year

2.3 persons / unit

650

7.8 years

 

Notes

  1. The numbers in the table are approximations and have been rounded for ease of computation.  Alignment with the Residential Inventory Analysis, authored by Roger Zalneraitis, is not possible since that memo tracks “lots” and this memo uses “units” (several units can be constructed on a single lot in some instances – duplexes, triplexes, multi-dwelling).
  2. There is an assumed potential for approximately 5,100 dwelling units in the city limits including available lots and assuming densities on unplatted parcels that could be served.
    1. These units could serve a population of 11,700 new residents
  3. Of the 5,100 units, there are 1,335 lots currently vacant with infrastructure available to serve them.
  4. There are several infill and fringe areas that are in the concept stage and the anticipated number of units is currently unknown.  The following areas were not assigned a unit count but are on the development radar – the area east of The Exchange Apartments, several lots downtown, N. Lawrence redevelopment near Johnny’s Tavern, mixed use potential near the Oread Hotel, several fringe areas, etc.  These areas were not included in the total unit count used in the calculations in the table and so the actual potential for units in the table may be low.

 

Discussion

 

The table and exercise above concludes that there is approximately a decade’s worth of existing and potential residential inventory of building sites within the city limits assuming current absorption rates; however, adequate infrastructure may not be in place to serve all of these areas at this time.  This is an overly simplistic view, however, because it does not differentiate between housing types, a level of detail that could be investigated if the commission desires but may not be necessary for the purposes of the Wastewater Master Plan update.

 

This exercise begs several questions about growth and its impact on infrastructure – roads, sewer, water, and even outside providers – electric, gas, cable, cellular, etc.

 

  1. Is there currently an appropriate amount of residential inventory for the community?

 

Historically, the market has dictated the level of residential inventory in the community and the city has not established a certain level of “healthy” residential inventory.  It is good to track the current inventory over time to understand the historic rates, but it is assumed that the inventory will cycle through periods of growth.

 

  1. What is the design capacity of the current wastewater treatment plant? When must the City begin construction of the Wakarusa Water Reclamation Facility (WWRF)?

 

The Utilities Department reports that the design population equivalent that can be served by the wastewater treatment plant located on East 8th Street is 100,000. However, for a number of reasons the City should not wait until that number is reached to begin construction of the WWRF. The Utilities Department believes the WWRF should be completed at a population equivalent of 98,000. The WWRF’s design and construction is estimated to take up to five years to complete. The 2008 population estimate for the city was determined to be 90,866.  The upcoming recommendations from the Wastewater Master Plan will be very important in determining the timing and scope of the necessary WWRF.

 

  1. Assuming a 10-year inventory of residential locations, it is still appropriate to plan for future growth.  Where will growth likely occur given the opportunities and constraints specific to this community?   

 

Providing sewer and water are only two components of setting a framework for growth.  Other opportunities and constraints to development include the following:

 

·         West of K-10 – Expected High rate of growth.  Growth in this area aligns with the historic growth pattern of Lawrence and would take advantage of K-10 and I-70 access and inclusion in the Lawrence school district.  The West of K-10 Plan established a policy for not permitting development for a large portion of this area until a financing plan and a commitment to construct an interchange at 15th Street/Bob Billings Parkway is established. 

·         K-10 and Farmer’s Turnpike Sector Plan area – Expected Medium rate of growth.  The area north of I-70 along Farmer’s Turnpike has been planned for significant employment center growth.  Demand for residential growth would need to be high to develop some portions of this area with sewers given the makeup of the watersheds.  Residential growth in this area is not expected to occur at a high rate.

·         Northeast Sector Plan area – Expected Low rate of growth.  The Grant Township area is an area currently undergoing sector planning to determine the level of future urbanization.  Historically, this has been a very slow growth area as it is constrained by floodplain and other elements that make it less desirable to urbanize.

·         East – Expected Low rate of growth.  Challenging topography, limited highway access, floodplain, and moving too far downstream of the treatment facilities all constrain development to the east along K-10 Highway.  Urbanizing within the Southeast Sector Plan area is anticipated, but developing east of this plan’s boundaries may not be feasible.

·         South – Expected High rate of growth.  South of the Wakarusa River, opportunities exist to take advantage of a new treatment facility and the Highway 59 improvements.  The area is within the Lawrence school district and staff believes this could be a significant growth area if the market demands it after the new treatment facility is constructed.  Sector planning this area is included on the long range work plan for the department.

·         Infill – Expected Low rate of growth.  While there is opportunity to develop and redevelop certain areas of the community, this will not play a significant role in the long term growth projections for Lawrence.  Infill and higher density redevelopment is considered the most efficient use of existing infrastructure but would only provide a small fraction of inventory needed to support the anticipated growth over the coming decades.

 

While capacity issues can be resolved with the new WWRF, decisions about where to establish water, sewer and road infrastructure will need to be made within the next 10 years.  The Utilities Department indicates that once the WWRF is online, projects will continually need to be balanced in order to optimize the system.  Growth decisions also impact other public services – street maintenance, police, fire, solid waste, and other general government services that must expand to keep up with the growth demand.

 

Plan Scenarios

 

Staff believes that the consultant should develop wastewater infrastructure solutions to serve the following three (3) scenarios:

 

a)    Scenario 2020:  Using the approved sector plans and other assumptions about future growth, disburse the projected 2020 population within the Wastewater Master Plan boundary.

b)   Scenario 2030:  Using the approved sector plans and other assumptions about future growth, disburse the projected 2030 population within the Wastewater Master Plan boundary.

c)    Scenario Build-out:  Using the approved sector plans and other assumptions about future growth, populate the entire Wastewater Master Plan boundary. 

 

 

Planning Process

 

It is appropriate for this report and attached maps to be provided to the Planning Commission, County Commission, School Districts, and other stakeholders for review and comment.  Input from the stakeholders and general public will be solicited through the meetings staff will hold with the City Commission, Planning Commission, County Commission, and School Districts. Staff can complete the majority of the information sharing in May, 2010.  Results of the input and comments will be summarized and a report of the results will be presented for City Commission approval at the end of the information-sharing process in order to provide staff the direction to implement the planning process.

 

Action Requested:

 

Receive report and direct staff as appropriate.