CITY MANAGER’S REPORT
July sales tax distribution
The City of Lawrence has recently received its July sales tax distribution. The distribution is the result of retail sales from mid-May to mid-June. The amount budgeted in 2008 for total city sales tax revenue (city, county, and use taxes) equals $22,675,298.
In order to estimate monthly sales tax revenues, a trend analysis of previous distributions is used. The 2008 estimate is based upon actual 2007 revenue while the 2008 budgeted amount only included a few months of 2007. Using this analysis, a projection of 2008 sales tax revenue was $22,602,146 or $73,152 less than the amount budgeted.
Actual distributions for the January through July period (reflecting mid-November through mid-June sales) total $13,321,302. Projections based on the trend analysis anticipated $13,060,997 for January through July collections. As a result, the actual distributions for the seven months are $260,305 more than the amount projected. A spreadsheet showing total monthly sales tax distributions since 2001 is attached.
It is recommended that the distributions be evaluated on a quarterly basis to prove a more reliable analysis because the variances due to collection and processing issues will have less of an impact. The 2008 to date sales tax distributions represent an increase of 5.0% over the same period in 2007. The latest month’s increase is likely the result of spending the federal rebate checks. The 2008 projected amount represents a 2.8% increase over the 2007 distribution. Based upon the first seven months results, it remains likely that our sales tax revenue will meet or exceed the projection and at least equal the slightly higher budgeted amount.
Effect of economic slowdown on population projections
Related to the recent decision of the EPA to lower the permitted levels of ozone (see attached memo for additional information), the Health Department has requested that we send updated long-term population projections for Douglas County to KDHE. KDHE and EPA are in the process of determining whether to consider Douglas County as part of the Kansas City “non-attainment” zone for ozone levels. Considering Douglas County as part of the Kansas City area for this purpose is likely not in our interest, as Douglas County may have to comply with any environmental controls required in Kansas City, even if our local ozone levels are not as high as the regional levels. Population and population growth may be considered by KDHE and EPA in determining whether to include Douglas County in the Kansas City zone.
Long-term population projections are run every ten years, after the decennial census. The last projection was run after 2000 Census; the next is planned following the 2010 Census. Running projections now with 2-3 years of slowdown would not change the projection significantly, and it would be hard to get a really reliable model. Using only data from the last few years of slowdown would not yield a credible long-term projection.
The recommendation from the Planning Division is to stay with the long-term projections contained in Horizon 2020. That document contains high, medium and low projections. In the past Planning staff recommended use of the medium projections, but given the slowdown of the past few years, Planning feels that somewhere between the low and medium projections is now the most likely scenario.
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Douglas County Population Projections (2006 Population = 112,559) |
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Projections |
2010 |
2020 |
2030 |
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Low |
109,522 |
122,474 |
135,426 |
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Medium |
118,501 |
136,826 |
155,152 |
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High |
120,065 |
144,212 |
173,214 |
The attached memo from December 2007 contains a more detailed explanation of population projections for the City of Lawrence, which makes up approximately 80% of the population of Douglas County.
Draft West of K-10 Plan available for review and comment
The 2nd draft of the West of K-10 Plan has been released for public review and comment. This is the next step in the public process to continue the development of the plan. A meeting to discuss the draft plan with property owners, stakeholders and the public will be held on August 7th from 6:30pm to 7:30pm at Langston Hughes Elementary School, 1101 George Williams Way. The draft plan, along with a planning area map, can be found online: http://www.lawrenceplanning.org/draftplans.shtml
Asphalt oil price increase
Asphalt oil prices rose from $490/ton in May to $730/ton in July. This equates to $12/ton of asphalt placed on our streets. Related to this price increase is a change order on the August 5, 2008, City Commission meeting consent agenda related to the KLINK project.
Update on work of Mayor’s Climate Protection Task Force
The Mayor’s Climate Protection Task Force has been meeting on a monthly basis since appointment in March. The group has reviewed baseline greenhouse gas emissions and Climate Protection Plans developed in other communities, visited with Kansas City, Missouri staffers regarding development of that plan, and identified four key focus areas. The four focus areas are: transportation, waste management, energy efficiency and conservation and policy, education and outreach. Workgroups in each of these areas comprised of members of the task force as well as other community members have been established and are preparing recommendations for incorporation into the final recommendations and report, which will be presented to the City Commission next spring. The website for this group, http://www.lawrenceks.org/climate_protection/, includes meeting schedules for the entire task force as well as workgroups and a resource section.
City of Lawrence programs highlighted in Kansas Government Journal
Various City of Lawrence programs were highlighted in the June edition of the Kansas Government Journal. Lawrence is mentioned as a Bicycle-Friendly Community and it is noted that Lawrence residents bike to work at three times the national average rate (see attached). An article concerning energy efficiency for cities mentions Lawrence’s participation in the U.S. Mayors Climate Protection Agreement. Finally, the Lawrence-Douglas County Metropolitan Planning Organization is mentioned in an article about regional transportation planning efforts in Northeast Kansas.