20-1107 Retail Market Impact Analysis
(a) Applicability
An independent market impact analysis shall be required for any application for site plan, development plan, or zoning that could result in 50,000 square feet or more of additional Floor Area for retail businesses in the City. Developments that would create less than 50,000 square feet of added retail space in the City or those that would reoccupy retail space that is already part of the City’s retail database (whether currently occupied or currently vacant) shall be exempt from the independent market impact analysis.
(b) Definitions
(1)
A retail business shall be
defined as one whose primary coding under the North American Industrial
Classification System (NAICS) falls into at least one of the following
sectors or sub sectors:
(i) Sector 44-45: Retail Trade;
(ii) Sub sector 722: Food Services and Drinking Places;
(iii) Sub sector 811: Repair and Maintenance; and
(iv) Sub sector 812: Personal and Laundry Services.
(2) Retail space shall be defined as enclosed Floor Area that is principally intended for occupancy by any of the above kinds of retail businesses regardless of whether that space is vacant or occupied by other types of business.
(3) Retail space occupied by a non-retail use shall be conspicuously identified with respect to the calculations of Section 20-1107.
(c) Criteria for Independent Market Impact Analysis
(1)
The independent market impact
analysis will be undertaken by an independent consultant of the choosing of the
applicant selected by the City from a list of
approved consultants certified for this analysis by the City of Lawrence. The
applicant may provide comment and advice
concerning the selection of the consultant, however, the ultimate selection of
the consultant shall be determined by the Director of Planning.
The applicant shall bear the expense of the independent market impact analysis.
(1)
and may
choose the certified consultant based on competitive cost proposals.
(3)(2) The market impact analysis shall provide at least the
following information:
(i)( )The
independent consultant will not be required to repeat the work necessary to
develop this information.
(ii)(ii)Based upon
aggregated sales tax information, grouped by NAICS sector or sub sector, and
provided by the City, the independent consultant will determine what, if any,
retail sectors are underserved in the City of Lawrence. Such determination will be based upon generally accepted
norms for retail consumption per capita or per household. Sufficient
information shall be provided as to allow for replication and verification of
the consultant’s conclusions.
(iii)(iii)Computation
of a hypothetical citywide retail space vacancy rate using current (i.e., at
the time of application) data on the City’s existing retail space vacancy
rates. The independent consultant shall assume that the new retail space will
either be entirely vacant when opened or will cause an equal amount of space
elsewhere in the city to become vacant.
(iv)(iv) Based upon
population and disposable income trends, as well as projected retail absorption
by NAICS sector or sub sector, the independent consultant will prepare a
phasing plan for the development of various retail outlets. Such plan would
not be site specific, but rather it would forecast absorption rates for the
city at large. The plan would be designed to avoid an unacceptable
citywide vacancy rate within retail properties in excess of 8.0% and to
ensure that well served retail sectors are not prematurely expanded. Pursuant
to the Comprehensive Plan, the project shall not be approved if the market impact
analysis indicates the commercial project or proposed phase
cannot be absorbed into the community within three years from the date of its
estimated completion, or that it would result in a community-wide retail
vacancy rate of greater than 8 percent.
4) The Planning Commission, the City Commission or the Planning staff may require additional data, analysis or information for the market impact analysis depending upon the proposed project or the proposed phase of the project. The Planning Commission shall establish standards and methods for analyzing retail market data.
( )
There appears to be no well
established correlation between retail square footage per capita and disposable
income. Gravity models (for measuring the capture of retail sales) that
attempt to fit “pull factor” to individual community circumstances can provide
misleading results. These data and techniques should be avoided in preparing a
retail market impact analysis.
(vi)( )Unique circumstances may
surround a request for retail development. The Lawrence Douglas County
Metropolitan Planning Commission or Lawrence City Commission may require the
analysis of additional information.
(4)(2)The retail market impact
analysis, properly prepared, will yield valuable information regarding the
City’s retail needs. These data should be aggressively provided to the
development community to encourage retail development to keep pace with retail
demand.
(d) Responsibilities of the City
(1) The Lawrence Douglas County Metropolitan Planning Office will maintain a list of not less than three independent consultants who are certified by the Planning Office to conduct the research and analysis necessary for the market impact analysis reports. The Planning Office will, from time to time, require these consultants to participate in appropriate training and informational sessions both to retain certification and to learn about new data and techniques suitable for the market impact analysis.
(2)
The Lawrence Douglas County
Planning Office will maintain a database of retail space and retail businesses
in the City. This database will contain nonproprietary information, such as
business name (or vacancy), address of the space, estimated Floor Area and land
/parcel area of the space, NAICS code of the establishment, general physical
condition of the exterior of the space, zoning of the land/parcel, and
related information that is readily accessible and useable by the public, by
City officials, applicants for retail space development or occupancy, and
independent consultants. The database shall be analyzed annually (at a
minimum) to determine and document the conversion of retail space into
non-retail space and vice-versa. The database should shall undergo
annual updating, including field research, at least annually but may be
subject to periodic updating as revised information is obtained during normal
city government operations.
(3) The Lawrence Douglas County Planning Office will maintain a database of retail sales tax receipts by NAICS sector or sub sector as a measure of retail sales in the City of Lawrence.
(e) Relationship of Market Impact Analysis to Project Approval
The
market impact analysis shall be used in conjunction with the appropriate review
and decision making criteria in the evaluation of zoning map amendment
applications and decisions and approvals of development plans and site plans. The market impact analysis, coupled with information
maintained by the Lawrence Douglas County Planning Office, is designed to help
guide the decision process to avoid: (1) unreasonably impacting retail activity
in the Central Business District; and (2) introducing retail businesses that
cannot be absorbed by the market thus adversely impacting other retail districts.
Additionally, the market impact analysis, coupled with information maintained by the Lawrence Douglas County Planning Office, should be used to identify underserved retail sectors and provide compelling rationale for attracting retail businesses to satisfy this market demand.